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Titre : Sources of contagion : is it finance or trade? Type de document : document électronique Auteurs : Caroline Van Rijckeghem, Auteur ; Beatrice Weder, Auteur Editeur : IMF Année de publication : October 1999 Collection : Working Paper num. 146 Importance : 28 p Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : Crise économique et financière Tags : Crise financière Commerce mondial Finance international Banques Résumé : This paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending, as opposed to trade linkages and country characteristics, can help explain contagion. We construct a measure of competition for bank funds and find evidence in favor of a common lender effect in the Mexican, Thai, and Russian crises, after controlling for the degree of trade competition and macroeconomic fundamentals. The results are quite robust to the definition of the finance indicator. In the case of the Asian crisis, results are not always robust to the inclusion of trade competition, reflecting the high correlation between competition for funds and trade. En ligne : https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/1999/wp99146.pdf Sources of contagion : is it finance or trade? [document électronique] / Caroline Van Rijckeghem, Auteur ; Beatrice Weder, Auteur . - [S.l.] : IMF, October 1999 . - 28 p. - (Working Paper; 146) .
Langues : Anglais (eng)
Catégories : Crise économique et financière Tags : Crise financière Commerce mondial Finance international Banques Résumé : This paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending, as opposed to trade linkages and country characteristics, can help explain contagion. We construct a measure of competition for bank funds and find evidence in favor of a common lender effect in the Mexican, Thai, and Russian crises, after controlling for the degree of trade competition and macroeconomic fundamentals. The results are quite robust to the definition of the finance indicator. In the case of the Asian crisis, results are not always robust to the inclusion of trade competition, reflecting the high correlation between competition for funds and trade. En ligne : https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/1999/wp99146.pdf Documents numériques
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Titre : The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru Type de document : document électronique Auteurs : Francisco Roch, Auteur Editeur : IMF Année de publication : September 2017 Collection : Working Paper num. 17/208 Importance : 25 p Langues : Anglais (eng) Tags : Prix des matières premières Fiscalité Commerce mondial Chili Colombie Pérou Résumé : This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks. En ligne : http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2017/09/29/The-Adjustment-to-Commod [...] The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru [document électronique] / Francisco Roch, Auteur . - [S.l.] : IMF, September 2017 . - 25 p. - (Working Paper; 17/208) .
Langues : Anglais (eng)
Tags : Prix des matières premières Fiscalité Commerce mondial Chili Colombie Pérou Résumé : This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks. En ligne : http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2017/09/29/The-Adjustment-to-Commod [...] Documents numériques
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Titre : Toward a Fiscal Union for the Euro Area Type de document : document électronique Editeur : IMF Année de publication : September 2013 Collection : IMF Staff Discussion Note Importance : 29 p Langues : Anglais (eng) Tags : Monnaies Euro FMI Résumé : A new paper from International Monetary Fund staff argues that advancing fiscal integration would help address a number of gaps in the euro area’s architecture. Alongside the banking union, a fiscal union would reduce the incidence and severity of future crises by strengthening fiscal discipline and providing a minimum amount of insurance against deep recessions. While putting in place a fiscal union will take time, providing a roadmap for implementation is viewed as essential to anchor confidence in the euro area’s viability, thereby also supporting current crisis management efforts. European policymakers have taken important steps to strengthen fiscal and economic governance frameworks. However, vigorous implementation and robust enforcement mechanisms are a prerequisite for greater fiscal integration. With these safeguards in place, according to the paper, a clearer ex ante approach to fiscal discipline and cross-country insurance mechanisms—as opposed to a strategy that relies exclusively on support when crises have already occurred—would further strengthen the architecture and ensure stability of the Economic and Monetary Union. En ligne : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2013/sdn1309.pdf Toward a Fiscal Union for the Euro Area [document électronique] . - [S.l.] : IMF, September 2013 . - 29 p. - (IMF Staff Discussion Note) .
Langues : Anglais (eng)
Tags : Monnaies Euro FMI Résumé : A new paper from International Monetary Fund staff argues that advancing fiscal integration would help address a number of gaps in the euro area’s architecture. Alongside the banking union, a fiscal union would reduce the incidence and severity of future crises by strengthening fiscal discipline and providing a minimum amount of insurance against deep recessions. While putting in place a fiscal union will take time, providing a roadmap for implementation is viewed as essential to anchor confidence in the euro area’s viability, thereby also supporting current crisis management efforts. European policymakers have taken important steps to strengthen fiscal and economic governance frameworks. However, vigorous implementation and robust enforcement mechanisms are a prerequisite for greater fiscal integration. With these safeguards in place, according to the paper, a clearer ex ante approach to fiscal discipline and cross-country insurance mechanisms—as opposed to a strategy that relies exclusively on support when crises have already occurred—would further strengthen the architecture and ensure stability of the Economic and Monetary Union. En ligne : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2013/sdn1309.pdf Documents numériques
Toward a Fiscal Union for the Euro AreaURL
Titre : Trade in financial services and capital movements Type de document : document électronique Auteurs : Natalia T. Tamirisa, Auteur Editeur : IMF Année de publication : July 1999 Collection : Working Paper num. 89 Importance : 22 p Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : Marchés financiers Tags : Marché financier Mouvement des capitaux Banques Commerce Résumé : International financial liberalization may alter saving–investment imbalances and patterns of capital flows across countries. Using a panel of OECD countries for 1990–1996, I examine how the liberalization of capital movements and financial services trade affects net private capital flows. Capital inflows tend to fall (rise) with the liberalization of commercial presence in banking and securities (insurance) services, possibly reflecting an increase (decrease) in saving. I find that capital account liberalization stimulates capital inflows, suggesting that better access to external financing helps sustain larger current account deficits. When cross-border trade is liberalized, capital inflows change insignificantly. En ligne : https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/1999/wp9989.pdf Trade in financial services and capital movements [document électronique] / Natalia T. Tamirisa, Auteur . - [S.l.] : IMF, July 1999 . - 22 p. - (Working Paper; 89) .
Langues : Anglais (eng)
Catégories : Marchés financiers Tags : Marché financier Mouvement des capitaux Banques Commerce Résumé : International financial liberalization may alter saving–investment imbalances and patterns of capital flows across countries. Using a panel of OECD countries for 1990–1996, I examine how the liberalization of capital movements and financial services trade affects net private capital flows. Capital inflows tend to fall (rise) with the liberalization of commercial presence in banking and securities (insurance) services, possibly reflecting an increase (decrease) in saving. I find that capital account liberalization stimulates capital inflows, suggesting that better access to external financing helps sustain larger current account deficits. When cross-border trade is liberalized, capital inflows change insignificantly. En ligne : https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/1999/wp9989.pdf
Titre : Understanding the Downward Trend in Labor Income Shares : World Economic Outlook, April 2017 : Gaining Momentum? Type de document : document électronique Auteurs : IMF Research Dept., Auteur Editeur : IMF Année de publication : April 2017 Collection : World Economic Outlook Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : Travail
InégalitésTags : Emploi Travail Distribution des revenus Politique de l'emploi FMI Résumé : Labour’s share of national income in many countries has declined, due in large part to policy decisions that weakened its bargaining power, new IMF research reveals (by Peter Bakvis)
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) paper warns policymakers about the risks of ignoring labour’s shrinking share of national incomes in many countries around the world.
“The decline in labour share has been concomitant with increases in income inequality,” the report notes, a trend which “can fuel social tension and … harm economic growth.”
The paper, “Understanding the Downward Trend in Labour Income Shares,” was subsequently published as a chapter in the IMF’s flagship World Economic Outlook report released on 18 April.
The report documents a decline in the share of national income going to labour (wages) versus capital (profits) in advanced economies starting in the 1980s and emerging and developing economies a decade later. While some countries have not followed the general trend, the IMF finds that for a sample of 89 economies for which it has sufficient data, those representing 78% of advanced-economy GDP and 70% of emerging-developing-economy GDP experienced declines in labour share between 1991 and 2014.
Among emerging and developing economies, the IMF report attributes most of the decline in labour share to “global integration,” notably participation in global value chains. For the advanced-economy group, the paper attributes one-half of the decline to the impact of technology, and a quarter to global integration, comprising financial integration and participation in global value chains.
The report also acknowledges that these factors are all strongly interlinked. Trade, financial integration and the application of new technologies have all been expedited by the removal of restrictions on trade and capital mobility.
The IMF paper explains the role of trade and financial integration, which intensified as a result of international agreements on trade and investment liberalization, by noting that “offshoring – or the threat thereof – lowers labour’s bargaining power.”
The report also notes the contribution of domestic policy decisions regarding product and labour market rules to the decline: “Changes in policies (such as declining corporate income tax rates) may have strengthened incentives to substitute capital for labour, while changes in institutional arrangements (such as unionization rates) may have contributed to the decline in labour’s share of income by lowering labour’s bargaining power.”
Additionally, it states that policy changes allowing for “increased [corporate] concentration across a number of industries” have contributed to increased profit and reduced labour shares in national income.
The section on policy implications is short and disappointing. It can be summarized as proposing “training, training and more training” to facilitate the reallocation of displaced workers, although it concedes that “longer-term redistributive measures might be required as well.”
Although the report notes that policy decisions, both domestic and international, have played an important role in weakening labour’s bargaining power relative to capital’s and contributing to the decline of labour’s income share, it proposes nothing to change those policy directions. - Third World Economics, Issue No. 637, 16-31 March 2017, p14En ligne : http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF081/23926-9781475564655/23926-9781475564655/ [...] Understanding the Downward Trend in Labor Income Shares : World Economic Outlook, April 2017 : Gaining Momentum? [document électronique] / IMF Research Dept., Auteur . - [S.l.] : IMF, April 2017. - (World Economic Outlook) .
Langues : Anglais (eng)
Catégories : Travail
InégalitésTags : Emploi Travail Distribution des revenus Politique de l'emploi FMI Résumé : Labour’s share of national income in many countries has declined, due in large part to policy decisions that weakened its bargaining power, new IMF research reveals (by Peter Bakvis)
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) paper warns policymakers about the risks of ignoring labour’s shrinking share of national incomes in many countries around the world.
“The decline in labour share has been concomitant with increases in income inequality,” the report notes, a trend which “can fuel social tension and … harm economic growth.”
The paper, “Understanding the Downward Trend in Labour Income Shares,” was subsequently published as a chapter in the IMF’s flagship World Economic Outlook report released on 18 April.
The report documents a decline in the share of national income going to labour (wages) versus capital (profits) in advanced economies starting in the 1980s and emerging and developing economies a decade later. While some countries have not followed the general trend, the IMF finds that for a sample of 89 economies for which it has sufficient data, those representing 78% of advanced-economy GDP and 70% of emerging-developing-economy GDP experienced declines in labour share between 1991 and 2014.
Among emerging and developing economies, the IMF report attributes most of the decline in labour share to “global integration,” notably participation in global value chains. For the advanced-economy group, the paper attributes one-half of the decline to the impact of technology, and a quarter to global integration, comprising financial integration and participation in global value chains.
The report also acknowledges that these factors are all strongly interlinked. Trade, financial integration and the application of new technologies have all been expedited by the removal of restrictions on trade and capital mobility.
The IMF paper explains the role of trade and financial integration, which intensified as a result of international agreements on trade and investment liberalization, by noting that “offshoring – or the threat thereof – lowers labour’s bargaining power.”
The report also notes the contribution of domestic policy decisions regarding product and labour market rules to the decline: “Changes in policies (such as declining corporate income tax rates) may have strengthened incentives to substitute capital for labour, while changes in institutional arrangements (such as unionization rates) may have contributed to the decline in labour’s share of income by lowering labour’s bargaining power.”
Additionally, it states that policy changes allowing for “increased [corporate] concentration across a number of industries” have contributed to increased profit and reduced labour shares in national income.
The section on policy implications is short and disappointing. It can be summarized as proposing “training, training and more training” to facilitate the reallocation of displaced workers, although it concedes that “longer-term redistributive measures might be required as well.”
Although the report notes that policy decisions, both domestic and international, have played an important role in weakening labour’s bargaining power relative to capital’s and contributing to the decline of labour’s income share, it proposes nothing to change those policy directions. - Third World Economics, Issue No. 637, 16-31 March 2017, p14En ligne : http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF081/23926-9781475564655/23926-9781475564655/ [...] Documents numériques
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