Labour reallocation and productivity dynamics: financial causes, real consequences / Claudio Borio    

Public ISBD Titre : Labour reallocation and productivity dynamics: financial causes, real consequences Type de document : document électronique Auteurs : Claudio Borio, Auteur ; Enisse Kharroubi, Auteur ; Christian Upper ; Fabrizio Zampolli Editeur : Bâle [Suisse] : BIS Année de publication : January 2016 Collection : Working Papers num. 534 Importance : 39 p Langues : Anglais (eng) Tags : Travail  Productivité  Crise financière Résumé : We investigate the link between credit booms, productivity growth, labour reallocations and financial crises in a sample of over twenty advanced economies and over forty years. We produce two key findings. First, credit booms tend to undermine productivity growth by inducing labour reallocations towards lower productivity growth sectors. A temporarily bloated construction sector stands out as an example. Second, the impact of reallocations that occur during a boom, and during economic expansions more generally, is much larger if a crisis follows. In other words, when economic conditions become more hostile, misallocations beget misallocations. These findings have broader implications: they shed light on the recent secular stagnation debate; they provide an alternative interpretation of hysteresis effects; they highlight the need to incorporate credit developments in the measurement of potential output; and they provide a new perspective on the medium- to long-run impact of monetary policy as well as its ability to fight post-crisis recessions. En ligne : http://www.bis.org/publ/work534.htm Labour reallocation and productivity dynamics: financial causes, real consequences [document électronique] / Claudio Borio, Auteur ; Enisse Kharroubi, Auteur ; Christian Upper ; Fabrizio Zampolli . - Bâle (Suisse) : BIS, January 2016 . - 39 p. - (Working Papers; 534) . Langues : Anglais (eng) Tags : Travail  Productivité  Crise financière Résumé : We investigate the link between credit booms, productivity growth, labour reallocations and financial crises in a sample of over twenty advanced economies and over forty years. We produce two key findings. First, credit booms tend to undermine productivity growth by inducing labour reallocations towards lower productivity growth sectors. A temporarily bloated construction sector stands out as an example. Second, the impact of reallocations that occur during a boom, and during economic expansions more generally, is much larger if a crisis follows. In other words, when economic conditions become more hostile, misallocations beget misallocations. These findings have broader implications: they shed light on the recent secular stagnation debate; they provide an alternative interpretation of hysteresis effects; they highlight the need to incorporate credit developments in the measurement of potential output; and they provide a new perspective on the medium- to long-run impact of monetary policy as well as its ability to fight post-crisis recessions. En ligne : http://www.bis.org/publ/work534.htm

Documents numériques

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Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America / Diego Urbina    

Public ISBD Titre : Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America : the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles Type de document : document électronique Auteurs : Diego Urbina, Auteur ; Marco Jacopo Lombardi, Auteur ; Rocío Gondo ; Enrique Alberola-Ila Editeur : Bâle [Suisse] : BIS Année de publication : June 2016 Collection : Working Papers num. 568 Langues : Anglais (eng) Tags : Prix  Matières premières  Flux des capitaux  Politique fiscale  Amérique latine Résumé : We provide a measure of the output gap that filters out the impact of the commodity and net capital inflows booms for Latin American countries. These two factors temporarily boost output and so are likely to push up estimates of potential growth in the region to unrealistic levels, thereby resulting in an underestimation of the output gaps during the upswing of the commodity cycle. We also shed light on the interaction between the two components. The results show that commodity prices has been the dominant factor explaining deviation of activity from sustainable levels. The timely consideration of these factors could prevent a procyclical fiscal policy bias in the region. En ligne : http://www.bis.org/publ/work568.htm Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America : the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles [document électronique] / Diego Urbina, Auteur ; Marco Jacopo Lombardi, Auteur ; Rocío Gondo ; Enrique Alberola-Ila . - Bâle (Suisse) : BIS, June 2016. - (Working Papers; 568) . Langues : Anglais (eng) Tags : Prix  Matières premières  Flux des capitaux  Politique fiscale  Amérique latine Résumé : We provide a measure of the output gap that filters out the impact of the commodity and net capital inflows booms for Latin American countries. These two factors temporarily boost output and so are likely to push up estimates of potential growth in the region to unrealistic levels, thereby resulting in an underestimation of the output gaps during the upswing of the commodity cycle. We also shed light on the interaction between the two components. The results show that commodity prices has been the dominant factor explaining deviation of activity from sustainable levels. The timely consideration of these factors could prevent a procyclical fiscal policy bias in the region. En ligne : http://www.bis.org/publ/work568.htm

Documents numériques

work568.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF

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