Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America / Diego Urbina    

Public ISBD Titre : Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America : the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles Type de document : document électronique Auteurs : Diego Urbina, Auteur ; Marco Jacopo Lombardi, Auteur ; Rocío Gondo ; Enrique Alberola-Ila Editeur : Bâle [Suisse] : BIS Année de publication : June 2016 Collection : Working Papers num. 568 Langues : Anglais (eng) Tags : Prix  Matières premières  Flux des capitaux  Politique fiscale  Amérique latine Résumé : We provide a measure of the output gap that filters out the impact of the commodity and net capital inflows booms for Latin American countries. These two factors temporarily boost output and so are likely to push up estimates of potential growth in the region to unrealistic levels, thereby resulting in an underestimation of the output gaps during the upswing of the commodity cycle. We also shed light on the interaction between the two components. The results show that commodity prices has been the dominant factor explaining deviation of activity from sustainable levels. The timely consideration of these factors could prevent a procyclical fiscal policy bias in the region. En ligne : http://www.bis.org/publ/work568.htm Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America : the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles [document électronique] / Diego Urbina, Auteur ; Marco Jacopo Lombardi, Auteur ; Rocío Gondo ; Enrique Alberola-Ila . - Bâle (Suisse) : BIS, June 2016. - (Working Papers; 568) . Langues : Anglais (eng) Tags : Prix  Matières premières  Flux des capitaux  Politique fiscale  Amérique latine Résumé : We provide a measure of the output gap that filters out the impact of the commodity and net capital inflows booms for Latin American countries. These two factors temporarily boost output and so are likely to push up estimates of potential growth in the region to unrealistic levels, thereby resulting in an underestimation of the output gaps during the upswing of the commodity cycle. We also shed light on the interaction between the two components. The results show that commodity prices has been the dominant factor explaining deviation of activity from sustainable levels. The timely consideration of these factors could prevent a procyclical fiscal policy bias in the region. En ligne : http://www.bis.org/publ/work568.htm

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